High fuel prices will impact consumer driving patterns and tire demand

摘要

Besides my regular channel checks with tire dealers and manufacturers, I speak often with suppliers of raw materials including producers of synthetic rubber, carbon black, steel cord and polyester. Their message is that they cannot keep up with demand from tire manufacturers. And that is not just a U.S. comment, but a global one. Tire manufacturers are still struggling to keep up with your demand because their inventor demand because their inventories are too low. So I am not surprised when I continue to hear dealer complaints about supplier fill rates — although the shortages are not as acute as they were last year. It is clear, however, that dealers who have been loyal to their supplier (vs. ones who buy from deal to deal) are getting the best service levels. With gasoline prices now in the $4/gallon range, I do expect to see some back-off in car driving, so consumer tire demand in the second half of 2011 may be a bit less than my initial expectations. Trucktire demand willstill be strong all through this year.