Minimax-regret treatment choice with missing outcome data

摘要

I use the minimax-regret criterion to study choice between two treatments when some outcomes in the study population are unobservable and the distribution of missing data is unknown. I first assume that observable features of the study population areknown and derive the treatment rule that minimizes maximum regret over all possible distributions of missing data. When no treatment is dominant, this rule allocates positive fractions of persons to both treatments. I then assume that the data are a random sample of the study population and show that in some instances, treatment rules that estimate certain point-identified population means by sample averages are finite-sample minimax regret.