基于生存分析法的顾客生命周期计量研究——以商业银行信用卡顾客为例

摘要

So far, the Chinese scholars have not agreed on methodology or empirical methods for the measurement of the customer life cycle. This paper applies survival analysis which is widely used in biology, medicine and other research fields. The Weibull distribution and the Product-Limit method is used on the actual credit card customers information data. The research draws the conclusion that the half survival period of credit card customers is 30 months and provides a way to calculate the lifetime cycle of credit card customers using these two methods.%截至目前,国内学者对于顾客生命周期的计量问题,无论是方法研究方面还是实证研究方面都未形成统一的结论.在生物学、医学等领域较为流行的生存分析方法基础上,针对实际的顾客生存资料调研数据,采用威布尔分布法和乘积极限法来估计商业银行信用卡顾客的生命周期,得出信用卡顾客的半数生存期为30个月的结论.这种将参数与非参数相结合的计量方法为国内信用卡顾客的生命周期计量提供了一种思路.