Domestic and global grains outlook

摘要

The world wheat indicator price (US hard red winter, fob Gulf) is forecast to fall by 12 per cent in 2013-14 to US$320 a tonne, reflecting a strong increase in world wheat production and an increase in world stocks. Despite this forecast decline, thewheat indicator price is expected to remain above the average of US$292 a tonne over the five years to 2017-18. The world coarse grains indicator price (US corn, fob Gulf) is forecast to decrease by 11 per cent to US$281 a tonne in 2013-14. The world indicator price for barley (French Rouen feed) is forecast to fall by 12 per cent to US$271 a tonne. These price falls reflect higher coarse grains production as producers respond to high prices in 2012-13. But despite rising production, increased consumption and low opening stocks will result in the prices remaining above the five-year averages to 2011-12 of US$217 and US$236 for corn and barley, respectively.