Exploring Global Investors' Beliefs on the Relations Between Global Macro Factors and Global Gross Domestic Product.

摘要

Efficient global business management has become increasingly important not just because of the growing complexity of the global market but also because of high level of risks and competition among investors. The failure of macroeconomics theories to dictate and prevent the 2007-2009 financial crises, calls for rethinking of current global macroeconomics theories and practice. Although relation between Global Macro Factors (GMFs) like technology, foreign exchange rate, inflation rate, debt, and unemployment rate, and Global Gross Domestic Product (GGDP) was conceivable, such knowledge was lacking prior to this study. Thus, the purpose of this quantitative study was to investigate the relation of GMFs to GGDP. Such knowledge would provide guidance to global investors on cross-border risk mitigation and profit maximization. The survey questionnaire was developed, tested and verified through Expert Panel and Pilot Study, and used for this study. The survey was randomly administered on members of global investment communities, generating 118 responses. The study involved computing Pearson correlations coefficients among GMFs to determine associations with GGDP. Multiple regressions revealed association of GGDP components with each other, GMFs variables and GGDP components. Analysis showed moderate correlation among all variables (p<.01) with GMFs explaining 52.3% of variance in GGDP. Results revealed positive association of all GMFs to GGDP except unemployment. The study's practical implications extend to global investors, business managers, and policy experts. For theory, the study contributes to the new open economy macroeconomics theory by enforcing our understanding of the relation between GMFs and GGDP.;Recommendations for future research include the expansion of the sample population to a broader population of intercontinental global investor groups and the consideration of other parameters and factors, internal and external to the ones studied here, that might be associated with the movement of GGDP.