Demand Boost and Weakening Production Growth Brought Veg.Oil Prices to Turning Point World consumption seen increasing by 8.5 Mn T 2018/19,versus a production growth of 4.8 Mn T

摘要

Outlook 2019/20: Our current estimates for oilseed production and crushings as well as for palm oil are pointing to a further slowdown of the production growth to only around 3.8 Mn T next season,the smallest increase in four years.The uptrend of palm oil production will lose momentum and seed oil production will not be in a position to offset this.The slowdown on the production side will affect the market all the more after burdensome stocks have been reduced in the course of the 2018/19 season.Total vegetable oil supplies(opening stocks plus production)are expected to increase by only 3.8 Mn T next season,less than half the growth registered in the preceding three seasons.How good can consumption adjust to the tightening supplies? The efforts to promote biodiesel production in Indonesia and other countries are expected to continue next year,pushing demand and raising prices of veg.oils.Policy makers may have to lower their biodiesel targets in order to mitigate both the looming production deficit and to moderate the probably unavoidable price rally.