Recovering the Brownian coalescent point process from the Kingman coalescent by conditional sampling

摘要

We consider a continuous population whose dynamics is described by the standard stationary Fleming-Viot process, so that the genealogy of n uniformly sampled individuals is distributed as the Kingman n-coalescent. In this note, we study some genealogical properties of this population when the sample is conditioned to fall entirely into a subpopulation with most recent common ancestor (MRCA) shorter than epsilon. First, using the comb representation of the total genealogy (Lambert and Uribe Bravo (P-Adic Numbers Ultrametric Anal. Appl. 9 (2017) 22-38)), we show that the genealogy of the descendance of the MRCA of the sample on the timescale epsilon converges as epsilon - 0. The limit is the so-called Brownian coalescent point process (CPP) stopped at an independent Gamma random variable with parameter n, which can be seen as the genealogy at a large time of the total population of a rescaled critical birth-death process, biased by the nth power of its size. Second, we show that in this limit the coalescence times of the n sampled individuals are i.i.d. uniform random variables in (0,1). These results provide a coupling between two standard models for the genealogy of a random exchangeable population: the Kingman coalescent and the Brownian CPP.