Food security and agricultural structural adjustment in Yarkant River Basin, northwest China.

摘要

This paper presents an analysis of the cultivated pressure and the benefit of cultivated land in Yarkant River Basin. Minimum area and deficits/surplus of cultivated land are used to describe the cultivated pressure, and reasonable range of agricultural structural adjustment is discussed under food security baseline. The results show that the cultivated land area of the Yarkant River Basin increased in 1978-2009, following per capita cultivated land area declined, while it showed an icreased warily of cultivated surplus in this basin, which is varied in different counties. The structure of land use affects its benefit, that the higher the percentage of grain crops sown area, the lower the per capita agricultural gross output value and annual per capita net income of rural households. It is effectively increasing agricultural output to adjust the agricultural structure and reduce the percentage of grain crops sown area. Considering the control of cultivated land and the requirement of stock consumption ratio in more than 30%, the minimum percentage of grain crops sown area of this basin in 2015 and 2020 is predicted, which are both lower than that in 2009. The differences among counties lead to the rationally readjust of the predicted values. The implementation of grain growing subsidies policy should strengthen to improve the enthusiasm of farmers to expand the area of grain crops.