Forecasting Volatility of Emerging Stock Markets: Linear versus Non-linear GARCH Models

摘要

ARCH and GARCH models are substantially used for modelling volatility of time series data. It is proven by many studies that if variables are significantly skewed, linear versions of these models are not sufficient for both explaining the past volatility and forecasting the future volatility. In this paper, we compare the linear(GARCH(1, 1)) and non-linear(EGARCH) versions of GARCH model by using the monthly stock market returns of seven emerging countries from February 1988 to December 1996. We find that for emerging stock markets GARCH(1, 1) model performs better than EGARCH model, even if stock market return series display skewed distributions.