Experience of genetic forecasts for world energy: Can we foresee the distant future?

摘要

It has been established that the historical approach to forecasting world energy can yield useful results at time horizons with a depth of several decades. The genetic forecast supposes the stabilization of global energy consumption at the level of 30 billion tons of coal equivalent and an increase in the carbon dioxide concentration almost to 500 parts per million by the end of the century. From the historical point of view, implementation of the most aggressive IPCC scenarios of human impact seems to be very unlikely.