On the scale of global demographic convergence 1950-2000

摘要

The second half of the twentieth century saw global demographic change of unprecedented magnitude. Taking the population of the world as a whole, the United Nations Population Division estimates that life expectancy at birth rose from 46.5 years inthe early 1950s to 65.4 by the late 1990s (United Nations 1999: 8). Similarly, fertility fell from a global average of 5.0 children per woman to 2.7 over the same time scale. The purpose of this assessment is to see how far these changes have led to theconvergence of demographic patterns around the world. In order To do so, I take into account not just the levels of fertility and mortality in each country at different points in time, but also the size of each population. I also disaggregate China and India into their constituent provinces and states in order to provide estimates for units more typical of the size of The populations of other countries. The assessment thus follows the lead of McNicoll (1999) in considering population weights, rather than nations, as its main focus. It presents proportions of the world's population according to the levels of life expectancy and total fertility they experience. The graphs and tables thus produced represent a convenient and novel way to view the scale andnature of demographic convergence over the last 50 years.