Late marriage and less marriage in Japan

摘要

Following world war II, the mean age at marriage in Japan (as measured by the singulate mean age at marriage) remained fairly stable until 1975, when it suddenly began to increase. Between 1975 and 1995, singulate mean age at marriage increased from24.5 to 27.7 years for women and from 27.6 to 30.7 years for men, making Japan one of the latest-marrying populations in the world. Over the same period, the proportion who will never marry, calculated from age-specific first-marriage probabilities pertaining to a particular calendar year, increased from 5 to 15 percent for women and from 6 to 22 percent for men--a far cry from the universal-marriage society of earlier years. While of great interest in their own right, these marriage trends have gainedattention also because they account for more than half of Japan's resumed fertility decline since 1973 (Ogawa and Retherford 1993b). This fertility decline has been substantial. Between 1975 and 1999 the total fertility rate fell from 1.9 to 1.3 children per woman. That fertility is now well below replacement level and still falling has caused much public concern in Japan.