BETTER FORECASTS, BETTER PLANS, BETTER RESULTS

摘要

The value that decision makers place on formal forecasts ―and the extent to which they act on those forecasts―depends on their conviction that the forecast is supported by credible data, treated in a logical manner. Structuring forecasts in accordance with the different ways that people view the future can enhance both the validity and credibility of the forecasts. These viewpoints can be classified into five categories: extrapolators, pattern analysts, goal analysts, counter-punchers, and extrapolators. Although there are circumstances under which each of the different ways of viewing the future is most appropriate, the likelihood of a successful forecast is greatly increased when techniques from several of these viewpoints are used in concert.