The End of Reliability

摘要

Recent attention has focused on the declaration of the death of stationarity and the associated implications for water management (Milly et al. 2008; Lettenmaier 2008). A recent panel convened by the EPA on the subject of water infrastructure planning in the context of climate change was notable for a lack of consensus and need for guidance expressed by water managers. Here I argue that the major implication of the end of stationarity is the end of the static design paradigm, exemplified by the concept of reliability, as the underlying design principle for water resource systems.