Analysis of the reliability disparity and reliability growth analysis of a combat system using AMSAA extended reliability growth models

摘要

The first part of this thesis aims to identify and analyze what aspects of the MIL-HDBK-217 prediction model are causing the large variation between prediction and field reliability. The key findings of the literature research suggest that the main reason for the inaccuracy in prediction is because of the constant failure rate assumption used in MIL-HDBK-217 is usually not applicable. Secondly, even if the constant failure rate assumption is applicable, the disparity may still exist in the presence of design and quality related problems in new systems. A possible solution is to apply reliability growth testing (RGT) to new systems during the development phase in an attempt to remove these design deficiencies so that the system's reliability will grow and approach the predicted value. In view of the importance of RGT in minimizing the disparity, this thesis provides a detailed application of the AMSAA Extended Reliability Growth Models to the reliability growth analysis of a combat system. It shows how program managers can analyze test data using commercial software to estimate the system demonstrated reliability and the increased in reliability due to delayed fixes.