Holding steady, just, maybe—and maybe not

摘要

It is by far the largest economy in Europe, and it is in trouble. In the regular half-yearly report that they published this week, Germany's six top economic-research institutes declare that the economy is "on the brink of recession". Will it fall into it? The economy is not actually shrinking, as far as anyone can tell, but since the spring it has not been growing either. Now the events of September 11th have made prospects gloomier and even more uncertain. The chancellor, Gerhard Schroder, and the finance minister, Hans Eichel, dismiss talk of recession. Yet Mr Eichel's forecasts are little different from those of the institutes: he thinks GDP will rise by only ~3_4% this year and by 1-1~1_2% next.