General Discussion

摘要

Lawrence Summers agreed that transparency about monetary policy decisions is superior to a fixed mathematical feedback rule, but he thought that neither approach is the best available. He worried that there might be substantial benefits from a central bank not demonstrating "extreme fallibility," which is almost inevitable if the bank is too open about its forecasts. For example, if the Federal Reserve's projections of its own intentions differ significantly from market expectations, that might imply a lack of credibility on the central bank's part. It could increase its credibility by following through on its own projections, but this would come at the expense of enacting optimal policy on a moment-by-moment basis. Sims replied that he did not propose straightjacketing future discretion: projections and policies should certainly be revised, but these revisions should be somewhat predictable.