FDI 与入境商务旅游的关系研究--以北京、上海、广州为例

摘要

Time series data of FDI and Inbound Business Tourism (IBT)in Beijing,Shanghai and Guangzhou from 1995 to 2013 are chosen to analysis the relationship between them by using the co-integration test,Granger causality test and elastic coefficient analysis.The research can be obtained as follows:(1)There is a long-term stable co-integration relationship between IBT and FDI.IBT is the cause of FDI,but there is a certain difference in the three places concerning FDI is IBT Granger reasons.The number of foreign enterprise and foreign investment are not the reasons for IBT in Beijing.Shanghai's foreign investment is the reason for IBT while the number of foreign enterprise is not.The number of foreign enterprise is the reason for IBT while the foreign investment is not in Guangzhou.(2 )Elastic coefficient analysis shows that the elasticity coefficients of IBT to foreign investment are higher than IBT to the number of foreign enterprise,which shows that the driving effects of IBT to foreign investment are higher than the number of foreign enterprises.(3 )Comparative analysis in Beijing,Shanghai and Guangzhou shows that the interaction of the FDI and IBT in Shanghai and Guangzhou is significant while in Beijing is not significant,but Beijing's IBT has the largest elastic coefficient of FDI,which is related to the city location while attracting FDI and the development degree of IBT.%选择1995—2013年北京、上海和广州 FDI 和入境商务旅游（IBT）的时间序列数据，运用协整检验、格兰杰因果检验和弹性系数分析法分析二者的关系。研究发现：二者存在长期稳定的协整关系；IBT 是 FDI的格兰杰原因，但 FDI 是 IBT 的格兰杰原因在三地呈现出一定的差异性：北京的外企数量和外企投资均不是IBT 的格兰杰原因；上海的外企投资是 IBT 的格兰杰原因而外企数量不是；广州的外企数量是 IBT 的格兰杰原因而外企投资不是。弹性系数分析表明，IBT 对外企投资的弹性系数均高于 IBT 对外企数量的弹性系数，说明 IBT 对外企投资的带动作用高于对外企数量的带动。北、上、广三地的对比分析表明，二者的互动关系在上海和广州显著，在北京不显著，但北京的 IBT 对 FDI 的带动作用最大，这与三地吸引 FDI 的城市定位以及 IBT 的发达程度均有关。