基于三支决策的高铁列车停站决策研究

摘要

为适应客流量不断变化、提高铁路企业收益,需要不断调整列车运行图或调整既有列车停站.本文引入三支决策理论,针对增开列车停站决策受到多重因素制约的特点,将高铁列车停站决策分为“设置停站”、“进一步研究”、“不设停站”三个部分,基于贝叶斯决策过程求解出不同停站设置下的决策风险值,进而求得对应的决策阈值,最后根据决策规则得到不同先验概率对应的决策结果.本文以昌福线为实例验证了三支决策在高铁列车停站决策研究中的可行性.%In order to adapt to the change of passenger flow volume and to improve the revenue of a railway enterprise,it is necessary to constantly adjust train working diagram or make adjustments in the existing train stopping patterns.According to the characteristics that decision of adding extra train stopping is restricted by multiple factors,and by introducing the three-way decision theory,atrain stopping decision was divided into three parts,namely,setting stops,further study and setting no stops.Based on Bayes decision procedure,the decision risk values of different stop settings were obtained,furthermore,the corresponding threshold was obtained,then,the decision results were finally determined according to the corresponding prior probability derived by the decision rule.Nanchang to Fujian railway line was chosen as an example to verify the feasibility of the new method.