基于 BP 神经网络的我国煤炭消费和碳排放量预测∗

摘要

利用1994~2013年历年的煤炭消费和碳排放量数据，将 BP 神经网络方法应用于我国煤炭消费和碳排放量的预测，通过预测值和实际值的对比分析，预测了2014~2020年的煤炭消费量和碳排放量，预测结果表明：未来几年煤炭消费和碳排放量依旧呈递增趋势，且增长率均不会出现太大的变动。%According to the coal consumption and carbon emissions data from 1 994 to 2013,the neural network method is applied in the prediction of coal consumption and carbon emissions.By comparing and analyzing the predicted value and the actual value,we predict the coal consumption and carbon emissions from 2014 to 2020.The predications show that in the next few years,coal consumption and carbon emis-sions still show an increasing trend,and the growth rate will not undergo a big change.