微博客中转发行为的预测研究

摘要

在微博客中,转发对信息的传播有着至关重要的影响,各种各样的信息正是通过转发得以在微博客上广泛且迅速的传播.另外在很多领域中,例如,市场营销、政治选举和热点提取等,也都需要深入探讨转发的各种特性.该文中,我们以Twitter为例,通过预测一条tweet是否会被转发,研究微博客中的转发行为.为解决这个问题,我们使用机器学习中的分类算法,并通过对微博上不同特征的重要性进行分析,提出了基于特征加权的预测模型.实验表明,我们的特征加权模型很好的解决了微博客中的转发预测问题,大约86％的微博能被成功预测.%Retweeting is a key mechanism for information diffusion in Microbloging services such as Twitter. It is the mechanism of retweeting that leads to the fast and wide diffusion of information in Microblogs. In addition, research on the characteristics of retweeting is of vital importance for many different fields such as viral marketing, political campaigns, breaking news detection and so on. In this paper, taking Twitter as an example, we investigate the retweeting mechanism in Microblogs by predicting whether a tweet will be retweeted. We analyze the importance of different features and apply the classification method with weighted features. The experiments show that the proposed method can predict a major fraction of tweets (nearly 86 %) , out-performing previous researches.