人民币实际汇率错位的经济增长效应分析

摘要

By using the behavioral equilibrium exchange Rate model, we esti- mate the equilibrium real exchange rate misalignment of RMB based on the quar- terly data, and then analyze the effect of the exchange rate misalignment on Chi- na＇ s economic growth. The results show that the real exchange rate of RMB de- viates from equilibrium real exchange rate in most period, and the displays as RMB real exchange rate misalignments. The undervalued RMB real exchange rate is conducive to Chinas economic growth; on the other side, the overvalued RMB real exchange rate is impediment for China s economic growth.%本文在行为均衡汇率模型BEER．的基础上，利用季度时间序列数据，测算人民币均衡实际汇率以及人民币实际汇率错位程度，分析人民币汇率错位的经济增长效应。结果表明，人民币实际汇率在大部分时期偏离人民币均衡实际汇率轨迹，表现为人民币实际汇率的错位。人民币实际汇率低估有利于中国经济增长，人民币实际汇率高估则妨碍中国经济增长。