The Regional Ensemble Prediction System(REPS) at CMA and its application to heavy rainfall forecast in monsoon season in China

摘要

@@ 1. Introduction To improve the probabilistic forecast of the heavy rain events in summer season in China, the Center of Numerical Weather Prediction(CNWP),CMA developed regional ensemble prediction system (REPS).The REPS took advantage of achievements at high resolution deterministic mesoscale prediction model, data assimilation system and experiences from development of global ensemble prediction system at CNWP. The real time operational running of REPS is started from Jun' 2010. Results showed that the REPS could give much more information comparing with control run. However, it was found that spread of REPS was small compared with observations and forecast errors, the forecasting error for control run was obvious, and mesoscale ensemble products were still not good enough for site- and time-specific forecasts, but it demonstrated good ability to capture the high impact weather event.