Method (method) for obtaining a high resolution rainfall forecast for several hours ahead in the Damm basin based on the correlation between interpolation values (interpolation) values of rainfall prediction values by a low (medium) resolution model and correlation of rainfall prediction values (including interpolated values) waveforms of high-resolution models

摘要

A low (medium) resolution model, such as the GSM, MSM, and the global model of the meteorological agency, is capable of forecasting a few days ago and catches a large area of rainfall A high accuracy model such as a local model LFM is estimated to be about 10 hours ahead, and it shows small cumulonimbus clouds, but it is accompanied by positional deviation and time shift. The rainfall forecasting method for the Damm basin has a defect in the reliability of the prediction alone.The present invention is based on the fact that the rainfall prediction waveform of high and low resolution, which has a correlation with the actual rainfall, is correlated.As shown in FIG. 10 (linear precipitation band) and FIG. 14 (typhoon rainfall), as shown in FIGS. 20, 21 and 22, the correlation coefficient of the actual rainfall and the predicted rainfall (the similarity of the rainfall waveform) is large and that there is the correlation between several hours before the heavy rainfall occurs.When the rainfall waveform of high and low (medium) resolution correlates, the value (the prediction value of the high resolution model) is very approximate to the actual rainfall amount.(FIGS. 14, 15, 16, 17, 18 and 19) concretely, the degree of correlation between the waveform of high and low resolution is determined based on the correlation coefficient of the waveform.Diagram