PHYSICS-STATISTIC ENSEMBLE PREDICTION SYSTEM FOR PRECIPITATION IN RAINY SEASON AND PHYSICS-STATISTIC ENSEMBLE PREDICTION METHOD THEREFOR

摘要

The present invention relates to an objective method for applying a statistical method by using the spring sea surface temperature, upward long-wave radiation, and snow covering data physically affecting precipitation in a rainy season and configuring an ensemble prediction model predicting the precipitation in a rainy season. The method comprises: a preceding factor determination unit having a rainy season index and a correlation coefficient and searching preceding factor combination having a high prediction rate; an individual prediction model configuration unit configuring a multi-regression prediction model by using the preceding factor determined by the preceding factor determination unit; an ensemble prediction model configuration unit configuring an ensemble prediction model by using the prediction models determined by the individual prediction model configuration unit; and a physical process analysis unit analyzing a physical process where each preceding factor affects the precipitation of the rainy season.;COPYRIGHT KIPO 2017