Study on the Spatial Pattern of Inter-provincial Population and the Effect of Regional Population Overflow Against the Background of the Implementation of the Universal Two-child Policy

摘要

Based on the data of the sixth nationwide census, considering the background of the implementation of the universal two-child policy, the inter-provincial population size and the inter-provincial population flow scale are predicted. According to the population data in 2010 and 2020, the evolution of spatial pattern of inter-provincial population movement in China is compared and analyzed, and its spatial spillover effects are examined. The study found that: first, the universal two-child policy promotes regional population agglomeration to a certain extent; second, comprehensively considering the direction, intensity and scale of inter-provincial population flow, 31 provinces and cities in China are divided into 6 types of floating population areas including large-scale net inflow active areas, small-scale net outflow active areas, large-scale net outflow active areas, small-scale net outflow active areas, balanced active areas, and inactive areas; third, inter-provincial population inflows promote regional population spillovers, and the contribution to the population spillover effects of inflow areas is 26.3-45.2%.