Regression prices for conceptual of Indonesian biodiesel market index price based on quality characteristics

摘要

The linear regression approach is used in this study to do valuation biodiesel formula prices in Indonesia in which the feedstock characteristics would influence the difference quality characteristics of biodiesel. The important properties: oxidation stability (OSI), total acid number (TAN), kinematic viscosity (v_k), and water content (WC) whose have direct impact to quality degradation are investigated from several feedstock. This study proposed biodiesel index prices are taken as a function of their characteristics and regressed biodiesel prices on the associated characteristic levels are set at an alpha value (α) = 274.854 ΔOSI - 12923.684 ΔTAN - 4573.543 Δv_k - 48498.973 ΔWC + 0.4 as an implicit prices of premium/discount. Validation alpha formula by statistical analysis obtained 100 percent of the squared correlation with confidence levels of F-test and t-test are both 1, these evidence are proof that quality differentials have a positive and strong significance relationship on the price differentials. Implementation alpha value into Indonesian market index price is evaluated to palm-based biodiesel that has quality degradation during three months' storage periods. The results fetching a highest premium price at first we ek and a lowest premium price at 13th week of Rp 10,077/L and Rp 535/L, respectively.