Impact of Anticipated and Unanticipated Monetary Policy on Real Estate Market: A Study Based on SVAR Model

摘要

As a pillar industry of national economy, the real estate is closely related to people's life. The monetary policy plays an important role in regulation of real estate, which is an effective means of macroeconomic regulation. Therefore, in this paper, money supply and interest rate are selected as the measures of Chinese monetary policy, the ARIMA forecasting method is utilized to divide the monetary policy into anticipated and unanticipated, and the SVAR model are employed to analyze the impact of monetary policy on the real estate market. The results of empirical testing show that the anticipated and unanticipated monetary policies have a certain effect on the real estate market; the effect of the anticipated monetary policy is far less than the unanticipated monetary policy. There is a positive correlation between the money supply and the real estate prices, and a negatively correlation between the interest rate and the real estate prices. The effect of interest rate is greater than money supply in the regulation of real estate prices.