THE ALTERNATIVE TO THE BAYESIAN PROCEDURE: VISUALIZATION OF THE PROBLEM BY MEANS OF THE TOOLS OF LOGIC

摘要

Traditional calculation procedures based on conditional probability rely on the Bayesian formula. The findings of psychologists argue that this approach is often unacceptable, leading to many errors. The paper examines ways contributing to error reduction occurrences in probabilistic calculations. They include the frequency approach based on the models of the Venn diagram and the decision tree. Bayesian model is described in a novel way as a complex of statistical and casual ratios.