CO2 Emission Reduction Potential in China's Electricity Sector: Scenario Analysis Based on LMDI Decomposition

摘要

The CO2 emission reduction from China's electricity sector will matter not only for China but impact the result of the global action on climate change. This paper firstly analyzed the main factors that affect the CO2 emission in accordance with the LMDI decomposition model. Then three scenarios were assumed based on the main factors to explore the CO2 reduction potential. Furthermore, LMDI method was used again to measure the contribution of each factor to CO2 emission reduction potential in the future. The results showed that the CO2 emission will continue to grow in the three scenarios from 2010 to 2020, with an annual growth rate of 10.7%, 6.5% and 4.5%, respectively. The active low carbon policies taken on the driving factors will contribute to 2701Mt -3688Mt CO2 emission reduction. The share of low-carbon power generation and thermal power generation efficiency are most important factors for emission reduction. However, in the long run, low-carbon power generation will contribute more. Terminal electricity consumption is always the most important factor driving CO2 emission up. Finally, policies for low-carbon development of China's electricity sector are proposed based on the analysis results.