Modeling Diversion Propensity at Work Zones

摘要

This study focuses on exploring drivers' diversion behaviors when encountering work zones on their travels. A stated preference survey was conducted to obtain the data on drivers' diversion propensity. By calibrating a binary logit model, we identified three major factors that influence drivers' diversion decisions, namely, travel time, work zone location and weather conditions. The model provides a better understanding on drivers' diversion behaviors at work zones and can be used to forecast diversion rates in work zone traffic studies. An Excel tool was developed based on the calibrated model for Florida Department of Transportation to help engineers determine a so-called "remaining traffic factor", an important factor in their work zone lane closure analyses.