An Application of Monte Carlo Simulation: Activity Based Urban Travel Demand Forecast Modeling

摘要

In this paper, we have investigated the application of the Montee Carlo simulation method on the estimation of the urban travel demand and have established a model with this method. Our model is based on the probability distribution of the individual activities characteristics, including typical activity chain patterns, activity time, activity location, travel mode, which is obtained by analyzing the survey data. In the simulation model, people are divided into several groups on the basis of their socio-economic characteristics. By simulating the individual daily travel activities of various groups, we can estimate the urban travel demand for the whole city.