Climate Change in the East-Asian Monsoon-Introduction of a New Method of Time Series Analysis

摘要

The observed series of the East-Asian monsoon index from 1873 to 2000 are analyzed with statistics; its trends and inter-annual in different periods are also revealed. The East-Asian monsoon has decreased since 1873; its interdecadal variation is highly significant. The decadal mean of the summer monsoon index during 1891-1900 was maximal in comparison with that of other decades, while minima occurred in 1921-1930 and again in IM1-2000. The maxima and minima of the winter monsoon are all previous than those of the summer in one or two decades, In order to model the change in the East-Asian monsoon, the self-memory principle of a dynamic system, and the Data-based Mechanistic Self-memory Model (DAMSM), which is a new approach of time series analysis, is described. The DAMSM has been applied to the series of the East-Asian monsoon index and demonstrates its ability for fitting and forecasting.