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Production Performance Prediction and Field Development Design Tool for Coalbed Methane Reservoirs: A Neuro-Simulation Approach

机译:煤层气储层生产性能预测与现场开发设计工具:一种神经模拟方法

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Implementation of numerical simulations for field development optimization can be overly demanding in terms of their time and manpower requirements. To overcome these problems, a methodology has been developed that can be used to predict production performance of a given field and perform field development studies with nominal manpower and computational requirements.Artificial neural networks (ANN) are used for development of expert systems for prediction of instantaneous and cumulative gas and water production, as well as for reservoir property prediction. A commercial reservoir simulator is employed for generation of database for training, validation and testing of these expert systems. Uncertainty in reservoir properties is taken into account by varying the reservoir parameters within an estimated range of values.Analysis of results obtained from trained networks showed error values of less than 3% for prediction of gas and water production profiles (forward networks), while those that are obtained for prediction of reservoir characteristics gave error levels of 15-18% (inverse networks). Forward networks were then used for optimization of field development based upon the criteria of maximizing the net present value (NPV) of a given field. Several case studies were carried out and analyzed.
机译:实地开发优化的数值模拟的实施可能在其时间和人力要求方面过分苛刻。为了克服这些问题,已经开发了一种方法,其可用于预测给定场的生产性能,并使用标称人力和计算要求进行现场开发研究。人工神经网络(ANN)用于开发用于预测的专家系统瞬时和累积的气体和水生产,以及储层性能预测。商业储层模拟器用于生成数据库以进行这些专家系统的培训,验证和测试。通过改变估计值范围内的储层参数来考虑储层性质的不确定性。从训练有素的网络获得的结果分析显示出误差值小于3%,以便预测天然气和水资源生产型材(前向网络),而那些可以获得用于预测储层特性的误差水平为15-18%(逆网络)。然后,基于最大化给定场的净现值(NPV)的标准,将前向网络用于优化现场开发。进行了几种案例研究并分析。

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