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Too Big to Fail? The Spatial Vulnerability of the Chinese Infrastructure System to Flooding Risks

机译:太大不能倒?中国基础设施系统对洪水风险的空间脆弱性

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Analysis of vulnerability to climate-related hazards such as flooding typically starts with the distribution of people and economic assets in flood-prone locations. However, this approach provides limited information about the severity of disruption that may be caused in extreme and disastrous events, as it does not fully account for the economic and social dependence on vulnerable assets. Infrastructure assets are particularly significant in this regard because of the very high social and economic dependence on these systems, which can extend far outside the hazard zone. In this paper, we demonstrate a methodology that is capable of understanding this spatial aspect of the vulnerability for the Chinese infrastructure system to flooding impacts on both a broad and local scale. We apply the methodology to the rail and electricity sectors. The results show the locations of critical infrastructure that is exposed to risk of flooding on a broad scale. We are also able to calculate the potential number of customers affected should infrastructure assets fail owing to one or a series of flooding event(s) on a local scale. Although interestingly our results show that the critical infrastructure in these sectors is not exposed to high flooding risks, however, climate change may increase the frequency of flooding events in these locations and planners should at least investigate the flood defence structures in these areas.
机译:对诸如洪水等气候相关灾害的脆弱性的分析通常从洪水易发地区的人员和经济资产分布开始。但是,这种方法提供的有关极端事件和灾难性事件可能造成的破坏严重性的信息有限,因为它不能完全说明经济和社会对脆弱资产的依赖性。在这方面,基础设施资产尤其重要,因为它们对这些系统的社会和经济高度依赖,可能会远远超出危险区域。在本文中,我们演示了一种方法,该方法能够理解中国基础设施系统在广泛和局部范围内遭受洪水影响的脆弱性的空间方面。我们将该方法应用于铁路和电力部门。结果表明,关键基础设施的位置广泛遭受洪水泛滥的风险。如果基础设施资产由于一次或一系列当地规模的洪灾事件而失败,我们还能够计算出潜在的客户数量。尽管有趣的是,我们的结果表明这些部门的关键基础设施没有遭受高洪灾风险,但是,气候变化可能会增加这些地区的洪灾发生频率,因此计划人员至少应调查这些地区的防洪结构。

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