The Dynamics of Automobile Ownership Under Rapid Growth:The Santiago de Chile Case

摘要

Little quantitative research has focused on how factors influencing travel behavior change in rapidlydeveloping and motorizing cities. We examine the particular case of household motor vehicle ownership,focusing on potential variations in preferences revealed through vehicle choice models estimated forSantiago de Chile in 1991 and 2001, and including zonal-level measures of relative location, metroproximity, residential density, and land use mix. The results indicate that preferences have changed from1991 to 2001, suggesting that as incomes rise and vehicle ownership becomes increasingly affordable,demographic and land-use and other contextual variables change in their apparent influence. The resultsvary across land use and locational variables; most notably the relationship between vehicle ownershipand land use mix appears to weaken over time, while the distance to CBD effect strengthens, and theresidential density effect varies in the apparent direction of change, depending on the vehicle ownershipcategory. An effect of proximity to Metro apparently emerges by 2001 for the household decision to own3 or more vehicles. This research shows that although income and motorization rates rapidly increased inSantiago, certain elements of the built environment influence household vehicle ownership, and theseinfluences change over time. Future research should focus on various potential market segments, such assuburban versus urban, and aim to control for self-selection regarding the land use and locationalcharacteristics.