Applications of the Risk Management to Forestry Systems Engineering in China -Literature Analysis for the Forestry Project Risk Management

摘要

References regarding project risk management of forestry from China Doctor and Master Dissertations Full-text Database (CDMD) and China Academic Journals Full-text Database (CAJ) of China National Knowledge Infrastructure (CNKI) have been analyzed and evaluated. It is suggested that 13 types of forestry projects regarding economics and agronomy and social science have been involved in the applications of project risk management and, the highest paper frequency is in economics and lowest agronomy; most of studies focus on risk identification, risk estimation, risk assessment, however, very few of them have covered complete procedures of risk management. It is also indicated that special tools for all steps in risk management have been in lack of systematic utilizations; Risk Control Chart(RCC) has been the only tool for risk planning; risk identification mainly bases on experiences; tool of the Analytical Hierarchy Process-Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation (AHP-FCE) as well as tool of the Error Back Propagation(BP) Neural Network-Fuzzy System(BP-FS) have been frequently employed as approaches of risk estimation and assessment; risk avoidance, risk retention, risk transfer, risk insurance, risk diversification and risk control have been approaches for risk response; technique of WEBGlS-based risk warning system, methods of auditing and cost variance anlysis have been chief tools for risk monitoring. It is concluded that systematic applications for the techniques of risk management to forestry projects remain to be improved.