DECISION METHOD AND SYSTEM FOR INVESTMENT TIME OF SOLAR CELL POWER PLANT BY CLIMATE CHANG SCENNARIO

摘要

The present invention relates to a method for deciding a real option investment of a photovoltaic power generation business using a climate change scenario, which includes the steps of: (a) selecting a photovoltaic power generation business area and collecting business information including climate change scenario information and business uncertainty element information of the selected area; (b) predicting major parameters of the photovoltaic power generation business according to the collected business information; (c) simulating sales and volatility during the project period of the photovoltaic power generation business using the climate change scenario information and calculating an option value; and (d) obtaining investment decision information through the calculated option value and the result of the binomial lattice model of each business year. Accordingly, the present invention can provide the investment decision information by accurately analyzing a photovoltaic power generation project.