Field Guide to Predict Delayed Mortality of Fire-Damaged Ponderosa Pine: Application and Validation of the Malheur Model

摘要

The Malheur model for fire-caused delayed mortality is presented as an easily interpreted graph (mortality-probability calculator) as part of a one-page field guide that allows the user to determine postfire probability of mortality for ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa Dougl. ex Laws.). Following both prescribed burns and wildfires, managers need the ability to predict the mortality of individual ponderosa pine trees based on burn damage. The model was developed from fire-caused delayed mortality observed for 4 years postburn in a replicated study of 12 burn units and 6 nonburned units near Burns, Oregon. During the fourth year, the percentage of mortality on burned units was not statistically different from that on nonburned units. Here we report validation data from 3,237 ponderosa pines in 10 additional burns, observed for 3 years postburn, from the southern Blue Mountains and northern California that indicate a good fit between mortality predicted by the Malheur model and observed mortality. Tear-out copies of the field guide on water proof paper are provided.