Romans to Mars

摘要

The key role played by technology advancement with respect to the anticipated era of discovery and exploration (in space) is illustrated: how bold new initiatives may or may not be enabled. A truly enabling technology not only renders the proposed missions technically feasible, but also makes them viable economically; that is, low enough in cost (relative to the economy supporting them) that urgent national need is not required for justification, low enough in cost that high risk can be programmatically tolerated. A fictional parallel is drawn to the Roman Empire of the second century A.D., shown to have possessed by that time the necessary knowledge, motivation, means, and technical capability of mounting, through the use of innovative mission planning, an initiative similar to Columbus' voyage. They failed to do so because they lacked the advanced technology necessary to make it an acceptable proposition economically. Speculation, based on the historical perspective, is made on the outcome of contemporary plans for future exploration showing how they will be subjected to the same historical forces, within limits imposed by the state of technology development, that shaped the timing of that previous era of discovery and exploration.