Strategic research on CO(sub 2) emission reduction for China. Application of MARKAL to China energy system

摘要

MARKAL was applied to the energy system for analyzing the CO(sub 2) emission reduction in China over the time period from 1990 to 2050. First the Chinese Reference Energy System (CRES) was established based on the framework of MARKAL model. The following conclusions can be drawn from this study. When shifting from scenario LH (low useful energy demand and high import fuel prices) to HL (high demand and low prices), another 33 EJ of primary energy will be consumed and another 2.31 billion tons of CO(sub 2) will be emitted in 2050. Detailed analyses on the disaggregation of CO(sub 2) emissions by Kaya Formula show. The energy intensity (primary energy/GDP) decreases much faster in scenario HL, but the higher growth rate of GDP per capita is the overwhelming factor that results in higher CO(sub 2) emission per capita in the baseline case of scenario HL in comparison with LH. When the carbon taxes are imposed on CO(sub 2) emissions, the residential sector will make the biggest contribution to CO(sub 2) emission abatement from a long-term point of view. However, it's difficult to stabilize CO(sub 2) emission per capita before 2030 in both scenarios even with heavy carbon taxes. When nuclear moratorium occurs, more 560 million tons of CO(sub 2) will be emitted to the atmosphere in 2050 under the same CO(sub 2) tax regime. From the analysis of value flow, CO(sub 2) emission reduction depends largely on new or advanced technologies particularly in the field of electricity generation. The competent technologies switch to those CO(sub 2) less-emitting technologies when surcharging CO(sub 2) emissions. Nuclear power shows significant potential in saving fossil energy resources and reducing CO(sub 2) emissions. (J.P.N.).