Analysis of energy strategies for CO(sub 2) emission reduction in China. Case studies by MARKAL model

摘要

The China's energy system has been analyzed by using the MARKAL model in this study and the time period is from the year 1990 to 2050. The MARKAL model is applied here to evaluate the cost effective energy strategies for CO(sub 2) emission reduction in China. Firstly the Reference Energy System (RES) of China and its database were established, and the useful energy demand was projected on the basis of China's economic target and demographic forecasting. Four scenarios, BASE1-BASE4 were defined with different assumptions of crude oil and natural uranium availability. Analytical results show that without CO(sub 2) emission constrains coal consumption will continue to hold a dominant position in primary energy supply, and CO(sub 2) emissions in 2050 will be 9.55 BtCO(sub 2) and 10.28 BtCO(sub 2) with different natural uranium availability. Under the CO(sub 2) emission constraints, nuclear and renewable energy will play important roles in CO(sub 2) emission reduction, and feasible maximum CO(sub 2) emission reduction estimated by this study is 3.16 BtCO(sub 2) in 2050. The cumulative CO(sub 2) emission from 1990 to 2050 will be 418.25 BtCO(sub 2) and 429.16 BtCO(sub 2) with different natural uranium availability. Total feasible maximum CO(sub 2) emission reduction from 1990 to 2050 is 95.97 BtCO(sub 2). (author). (ERA citation 20:018380)