Emerging Nuclear Powers: India and Pakistan Since 1998 and the United States' Impact on Regional Stability

摘要

A stable peaceful South Asia is essential to the security of the United States. In 1998 India and Pakistan conducted nuclear tests and became declared nuclear powers. Less than a year later India and Pakistan were fighting a limited war and aggressively rattling their nuclear sabers. The sustained tensions between the two countries threats physical proximity and power asymmetry result in an unstable situation. The U.S. should not and likely cannot prevent the introduction of Anti-Ballistic Missiles to the region. However the U.S. should take steps to enhance stability including facilitation of dialogue and technology and information sharing all the while promoting confidence building measures. Any aid should be contingent on verifiable nonproliferation and counter terrorism efforts. Neither country is likely to roll back their nuclear programs but they are at a plateau of nuclear weapons development that can be maintained with modest international effort. While there are thus a variety of actions that the U.S. can take the most important quality in any course of action is consistency. India and Pakistan are very sensitive to the past fluctuations in U.S. interest. It is vital that the United States adopt a more sustained high-level and nuanced policy in South Asia.