Tide turning for market fundamentals

摘要

The April Oil market report from the International Energy Agency (IEA) detects a turning of the tide for market fundamentals, with an implied 1Q2012 global stock build of 1.2mn b/d. Gains in OPEC production to 31.4mn b/d in March have seen global oil supply move ahead of oil demand for the first time since early 2009. However, despite a recent easing, oil prices remain high, reflected in a now-higher price assumption for 2012 overall. Uncertainty over summer supplies and the potential loss of around 1mn b/d of Iranian crude due to sanctions continue to provide price support. A higher baseline 1Q2012 demand estimate nonetheless holds expected 2012 oil demand growth unchanged at 0.8mn b/d, states the IEA.