The Thorny Nature of Predictive Validity Studies on Screening Tests for Developmental-Behavioral Problems

摘要

Over the last few years, several researchers have focused on the predictive validity of developmental-behavioral screening tools. Predictive validity studies compare the results of a screening test administered at a single point in time (referred to hereafter as time 1) to the results of a diagnostic test or battery administered 3 months to several years later (time 2). Unlike concurrent validity studies in which both screening and diagnostic measures are administered at the same time to determine the sensitivity and specificity of a screen, predictive validity studies depend on longitudinal measurement and focus on how well a screen predicts future developmental status. As a consequence, predictive validity research offers a critical illustration of whether a screening test measures dimensions of development that are enduring and have a meaningful impact on children's long-term outcomes. As already stated by the American Academy of Pediatrics, a concerning, high-quality screening result should generate a referral to early intervention or special education, which has been shown to improve a child's developmental, behavioral, and/or school-readiness trajectory.