THE JOINT CALIBRATION MODEL IN PROBABILISTIC WEATHER FORECASTING: SOME PRELIMINARY ISSUES

摘要

Weather forecasting has been traditionally viewed as a deterministic task: given a set of input data, a single prediction is generated by sophisticated numerical models of the atmosphere. Indeed, several uncertainty sources are involved in environmental prediction (for instance, initial conditions, model formulations, unrepresented feedbacks) and only a probabilistic framework can convey these uncertainties in the prediction. Such a perspective is offered by Ensemble Predic-tion Systems, introduced in weather forecasting in the last decade (Gneiting and Raftery, 2005).