Determinants of the demand for organic milk in Germany - an econometric analysis. [German]Original Title Determinanten der Nachfrage nach Biomilch in Deutschland Eine okonometrische Analyse.

摘要

A growing number of studies deals with consumer decisions with respect to organic food, but only a few provide quantitative estimates of price and income elasticities. This paper contributes to the existing literature by providing own-price elasticity estimates as well as analysis of the socio-demographic determinants of demand for organic milk. The analysis is based on the GfK Consumer Scan Scanner panel dataset on food purchases of German households covering a sample period of four years from January 2004 to December 2007. A multi-stage estimation procedure is applied. Firstly, a probit regression figures out which household characteristics influence the probability of buying organic milk. Secondly, a fixed-effects-panel regression selects all those determinants that have an effect on the quantity demanded. Finally, the study determines whether the price elasticity of demand depends on income, age and household size and whether price elasticity varies between different shop types. The results show that the tendency to buy organic milk rises with an increase in the level of education and income. Furthermore, the demand is usually higher in households with young children and with a female responsible for budget management. However, the probability declines when there is more than one child per household. The results of the fixed-effects-regression indicate that the demand for organic milk in Germany is highly price-inelastic. As expected, price sensitivity for all types of milk is higher in discount shops than in other forms of retail such as supermarkets or large-scale retail. Demand in organic food shops is the least responsive to price changes. Low absolute price elasticities indicate that price promotions at retail level will not lead to an increase in sales. Instead, other instruments in the marketing mix, especially those based on communication and distribution policy, seem to be more promising.