Climate-sensitive modelling of site-productivity relationships for Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.) and common beech (Fagus sylvatica L.)

摘要

The aim of the presented research project is to fit a site index model capable for predicting changes in site-productivity in a changing climate. A generalized additive model is used to predict site index as a function of soil and climate variables. The climate parameter values are estimated using the regional climate model WETTREG, based on global climate simulations with the global circulation model ECHAM5/MPI-OM for the reference period from 1961 to 1990. The climate values are further regionalized on a 200mc200m grid. The generalized additive model quantifies the partial linear and non-linear effects of the predictor variables on site index. The model is parameterized for Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.) and common beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) in Lower Saxony, Germany. Two case studies investigate the model's ability to generate information in order to support forest management planning decisions under a changing climate. One example analyzes the possible shift in site index of spruce along a precipitation gradient under the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) emission scenario A1B in the period from 2041 to 2050. The other case study shows possible future changes in site index of beech along a temperature gradient.