Regional seismic risk in British Columbia-damage and loss distribution in Victoria and Vancouver

摘要

This paper presents the results of regional seismic risk assessment studies that were carried out for two cities in southwestern British Columbia, Vancouver and Victoria. Ground shaking intensity in the area was obtained using the seismic source zones delineated by the Geological Survey of Canada for a probability level of 10 percent chance of exceedance in 50 years. Building inventories were compiled by aggregating data from sidewalk surveys as well as municipal databases. Modified Mercalli intensity-based damage matrices that relate the level of ground shaking to the amount of damage expected in different types of structures were used to estimate damage to structural and non-structural components of buildings. Estimated damage and loss distributions were mapped on a block-by-block basis. The historic sections of the cities were estimated to have damage levels between 10 percent and 30 percent of the replacement cost, while in the rest of the cities the estimated damage was generally in the 5 percent to 10 percent range. The results show the estimated economic loss distribution is considerably different from the damage distribution. Although the older neighbourhoods of the cities are expected to suffer highest amount of damage, the highest amount of economic loss is estimated to occur in areas with concentration of concrete high-rise buildings.