Time-function reliability of harbour infrastructures from stochastic modelling of corrosion

摘要

This article summarises research led during the second phase of the French GEROM (risk management of maritime and river harbour structures) project in order to quantify the risks associated with vulnerable structures. A reliability analysis is applied here to steel sheet-pile seawalls. For this purpose, a stochastic (spatial-temporal) model of steel corrosion is proposed, based on a statistical analysis of data collected from wharves located in several French ports and of various ages. The predictions obtained from the corrosion model are then integrated into a reliability analysis to carry out a time-function reliability analysis of corroded harbour structures. The results are then compared and analysed both in terms of reliability and sensitivity to basic random variables. This approach allows suggesting preliminary requirements about maintenance optimisation.